The outcome of the local elections on 18 May could see some interesting changes in the composition of the Makana Council.
The outcome of the local elections on 18 May could see some interesting changes in the composition of the Makana Council.
While we residents in the municipality are all aware of the significance of possible changes, it would seem that nationally the larger organisations do not think Makana is worth worrying about. The local IEC representative is not allowed to talk to the media and the commission itself has placed almost no advertising in local print or radio.
It would appear that the IEC has gone out of its way to maintain a low profile. Judging from the low key voter registration campaigns in February and March and the complete lack of voter education since then, one could be forgiven for thinking that the IEC is not particularly keen on recording a high voter turnout on 18 May.
However, it is not only the IEC that appears to be disinterested in Makana municipal affairs. The larger parties such as the ANC, DA and Cope have not sent any of their heavy hitters into the Makana area to whip up support.
This is in contrast to the 2009 elections when the DA held a business breakfast for its parliamentary leader, Athol Trollip and Cope held well attended meetings for provincial big guns, Mluleki George and Smuts Ngonyama.
Political parties have also not bothered about spending their money on publicising their election platforms, prefering instead to gain free exposure by writing letters to the editor. This somewhat tepid enthusiasm for the local elections was also recorded in 2006 when we last voted for municipal authorities.
In that year, the voter turnout in Makana Municipality was a mere 52.38%, well below the 79.36% figure recorded in this area for the 2009 national elections. It is not clear how the turnout has affected results in previous elections, nor the impact it is likely to have on 18 May.
When voter turnout was low as in 2006 the ANC did rather well with a shade under 81% of the votes while the DA secured just over 14%. In the 2009 election, with a much higher turnout, the ANC dropped to 65.69% and the DA increased its share to 16.58%.
This would suggest that in view of the expected lower turnout next week, the ANC should do rather well, and could return to the higher percentages of 2006. The ruling party could also benefit from many Cope members who have been disappointed with their new party and are ready to return to the ANC fold.
However, these conclusions could be misleading because informal surveys, in areas where the ANC traditionally enjoys high levels of support, indicate that many people will stay away from the polls as a form of protest against poor service delivery.
Lifelong members of the ANC who are angry with the inefficiency and corruption in government structures could not bring themselves to vote for the opposition, so they will rather stay at home on voting day. While the local DA leadership is probably quite pleased with the national mood riding on Helen Zille’s blue wave away from the ANC, there must certainly be concerns about the Mind threat.
It is generally believed that the DA and Mind could be appealing to the same constituency, so for many voters it might be difficult choosing between candidates of the two parties. It is conceivable that a ward split between the DA and Mind could benefit a third party – a prospect that has already caused more than a little grumpiness between prominent members of the respective parties.
As no formal opinion polls have been conducted among Makana voters, it is difficult to predict the outcome of next week's elections. Grocott's Mail will publish the results online as soon as they become available, and in the print edition, with appropriate analysis as soon as possible.
This means that we will probably have preliminary results in our Friday, 20 May edition, and final results plus in-depth analysis for our Tuesday edition on 24 May.
