By Helmo Preuss The European Union (EU) new car market saw registrations rise by 7.6% year on year (y/y) in May to 1,386,818 units. In volume terms, this result comes close to May 2007 levels, just before the economic crisis hit the European auto industry, which bodes well for the platinum price. This is because European demand accounts for just over a third of global platinum demand for use in autocatalysts, even though the region produces less than a quarter of worldwide new cars. This disparity is because the Europeans have stringent emission standards that require higher platinum loadings in…
Author: Helmo Preuss
BER Business Confidence collapses to worst level since 2009 By Helmo Preuss The Bureau for Economic Research’s (BER) / Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) Business Confidence Index collapsed to 29 in the second quarter from 40 in the first quarter. That meant that seven out of every 10 respondents are despondent about prevailing business conditions. The last time we saw such despondency was during the 2009 recession. The BER said it was striking that each of the five sectors covered in the survey (i.e. manufacturing, retail trade, wholesale trade, motor trade and the building sector) now has a BCI…
Agbiz Confidence Index shows continued farmer optimism By Helmo Preuss Although the Abiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) slipped to 56 in the second quarter from 57 in the first quarter, the ACI remained above 50 for the fourth consecutive quarter as farmers remain optimistic about future prospects despite the fact that the South African economy entered a recession in the first quarter 2017. The Agbiz / IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index reflects the perceptions of more than 20 agribusiness decision-makers on the ten most important aspects influencing a business in the agricultural sector (i.e. turnover, net…
The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) Business Confidence Index fell to 93.2 in May, the lowest so far this year, from this year’s high of 97.7 reached in January. SACCI blamed the drop on political uncertainty after the 31 March cabinet reshuffle. “Heightened political tensions, additional economic policy uncertainty and lower credit ratings by rating agencies that converged towards the end of March 2017, continued to effect the business climate negatively in May 2017,” the lobbying group said. It said the largest negative monthly effect on business confidence in May came from notably lower merchandise import volumes,…
Bulk exports growth of 10.9% y/y in May should boost economy By Helmo Preuss South Africa’s bulk export volumes rose by 10.9% year-on-year (y/y) in May to 15.1 million tonnes according to Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA). The data shows that the primary sector that is agriculture and mining will be boosting the South African economy this year. In the first quarter these two sectors were the only ones out of the ten major economic sectors that contributed to the quarterly change in the first quarter. Their contribution is expected to continue in the remainder of the year as harvesting…
SACCI Business Confidence Index drop in May blamed on political uncertainty By Helmo Preuss The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) Business Confidence Index fell to 93.2 in May, the lowest so far this year, from 94.9 in April and this year’s high of 97.7 reached in January. SACCI blamed the drop on political uncertainty after the 31 March cabinet reshuffle. “Heightened political tensions, additional economic policy uncertainty and lower credit ratings by rating agencies that converged towards the end of March 2017, continued to effect the business climate negatively in May 2017,” the lobbying group said. It…
By Helmo Preuss Tractor sales jumped by 16.8% year-on-year (y/y) to 493 units in May following a 11.3% fall in 2016 to 5,855 units, according to the South African Agricultural Machinery Association (Saama). The May jump showed that farmers are resilient as they remain optimistic about future prospects despite the fact that the South African economy entered a recession in the first quarter 2017. The first quarter data saw the recovery in agricultural production. This showed the first quarter-on-quarter (q/q) increase since the fourth quarter 2014 and was up a massive 22.2% q/q seasonally adjusted annualised, while the y/y growth…
Year on year GDP growth, versus quarter on quarter recession The first quarter 2017 gross domestic product data released by Statistics South Africa on Tuesday had something for both optimists and pessimists. The optimists focused on the steady improvement in the year-on-year (y/y) growth rate that has increased from a dismal -0.6% y/y in the first quarter 2016 to 1.0% y/y in the first quarter 2016. The pessimists focused on the 0.7% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised (saa) contraction in the first quarter 2017 after a 0.3% drop in the fourth quarter. As the generally accepted definition of a recession is…